Can we model tipping points? (Or even agree about what they are?)

The term “tipping point” has become ubiquitous in research about socio-ecological systems, but what are they, actually, on-the-ground? How can they be better studied empirically? Are social and ecological definitions compatible? Can we model them?

These are questions we explored during a workshop at Die Technische Universität München, as part of the Feedback Project, “Finding and understanding Ecological and socio-Economic system Dependencies in Biodiversity conservation and AgriCultural land use for the management of Key system drivers”. Led by Prof. Thomas Knoke and his colleagues at TMU, it gathered a diverse group of modellers (restoration, soils, forestry, economics, agriculture) to consider approaches to modelling these complex systems their related tipping points.

As the only non-modeller in the group, it was a interesting and humbling experience. I'm eager to learn more about the different technical approaches to thinking about tipping points, and how we can use these to best reflect on-the-ground social realities and to meaningfully inform decision-making.